November runoffs could move San Diego left

Three San Diego Democrats who fared better than many expected in the June primary are gearing up for November runoffs that could shift policy making at City Hall to the left.

Democrat Mara Elliott, whose upset second-place finish in June was the story of election night, is facing Republican Robert Hickey in the race for city attorney.

Democrat Barbara Bry, who nearly got the simply majority needed in June to avoid a runoff despite facing four opponents, will battle Republican Ray Ellis in the race for north coastal Council District 1.

And progressive Democrat Georgette Gomez, who fought off another progressive for a strong second-place finish in June, will face more moderate Democrat Ricardo Flores in the race for mid-city Council District 9.

Many expect the Elliott-Hickey and Gomez-Flores contests to be tight races that could go either way, while Bry is considered a significant favorite over Ellis based on her wide margin in June and a November electorate that’s been historically friendly to Democrats.

The Bry-Ellis race is still considered crucial, however, because an Ellis win would flip the Democrats’ 5-4 council majority in favor of Republicans.

The city’s four other 2016 races were decided in June because one candidate surpassed 50 percent of the vote in each.

Republican Kevin Faulconer was re-elected mayor, Republicans Mark Kersey and Scott Sherman were re-elected in suburban Council Districts 5 and 7, and Democrat Chris Ward was elected to replace termed-out Democrat Todd Gloria in urban District 3.

Elliott appears to be in strong position in the city attorney race based on the four Democrats running in June getting more than 71 percent of the vote and Hickey getting just under 29 percent.

But Elliott only got 24 percent herself, and it’s not reasonable to expect her to get votes from the other 47 percent who opted for Democrats Rafael Castellanos, Gil Cabrera and Bryan Pease, said Elliott campaign manager Dan Rottenstreich.

“I think this is going to be a tough race,” Rottenstreich said.

Elliott could also be vulnerable on fund raising. She was sharply outraised and outspent by Hickey, Castellanos and Cabrera in June, and Hickey seems capable of having a much better-funded campaign, Rottenstreich said.

“We certainly expect to raise more money for the general election,” he said, predicting that the local Republican Party and the conservative Lincoln Club will aggressively support Hickey. “We know we need to and I think we’re going to get there.”

Elliott may also lose the advantage she got from having the title “chief deputy city attorney” appear next to her name on the ballot.

Many say that made her a more credible candidate than the other Democrats, who are all private sector attorneys. But Hickey is a deputy district attorney.

While his high-profile gang prosecutions won’t directly apply to the misdemeanor cases handled by the city attorney’s office, having that title next to his name is expected to soften Elliott’s advantage there.

And Hickey’s campaign noted last week that changes in state policy have sharply increased the number of criminal cases handled by the city attorney’s office.

Comparing 2015 to 2014, drug charges increases 38 percent, theft charges spiked 65 percent and combined drug and theft charges jumped 138 percent.

“Hickey is going to continue talking about important issues like addressing the city’s rising crime rates by improving the city attorney criminal division,” said campaign manager Sara Kamiab, noting that Hickey has consistently beat Elliott in polls by both campaigns.

Critics have said Hickey playing up his prosecutorial background is somewhat disingenuous because the city attorney’s job is more about protecting taxpayers from litigation and making sure everything at City Hall is done legally.

Rottenstreich said Elliott’s experience is a much better fit.

“She’s the candidate ready to hit the ground running on Day One,” he said.

In the Democrat vs Democrat battle in District 9, Gomez is riding a surge of momentum since her strong second-place finish in June to Flores.

Considered to have a roughly equal chance as Sarah Saez to make a runoff against Flores, Gomez, a community leader and associate director at the Environmental Health Coalition, got more than 30 percent of the vote — compared to 34 percent for Flores and 23 percent for Saez.

Since then, she has been endorsed by Saez and the county Democratic Party, which had remained neutral in the primary.

“Georgette Gómez has been a tireless champion for more affordable housing, expanding public transit, and standing up for working people,” said party chairwoman Francine Busby. “This endorsement is a clear message to Democratic voters that she is the best candidate to fight for Democratic values and our neighborhoods’ priorities at City Hall.”

Those endorsements appear to make the race even or to possibly make Gomez a favorite. But Rottenstreich, who serves as campaign manager to Gomez as well as Elliott, said that won’t affect strategy.

“We’re going to run the race as if Georgette is an underdog,” he said, noting that Flores got support in the primary from the Chamber of Commerce and others who typically lean more to the right.

Flores, longtime chief of staff for termed-out District 9 Councilwoman Marti Emerald, has expressed frustration that unsolicited help from such groups has been used against him by progressives.

Flores contends he is just as progressive as Gomez on minimum wage increases, the city’s climate action plan and other issues important to those on the left.

“The difference is who can actually get things done,” said Jennifer Tierney, his campaign manager.

Rottenstreich disagreed, contending the candidates are miles apart in many ways.

“She’s running to shake up City Hall and bring a fresh perspective to the City Council,” he said. “She’s a political outsider and her opponent is a City Hall insider supported by the Chamber of Commerce and downtown special interests.”

Money, especially from labor groups, could play a key role in the race.

Saez got strong support from the San Diego Imperial Counties Labor Council in June, but it’s unclear whether they will support Gomez.

Flores also has labor support, including the city’s Municipal Employees Association and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.

Tierney said Flores’ time at City Hall should help instead of hurt his chances.

“People are much happier with the city right now,” she said, adding that the public supports recent efforts to prioritize infrastructure and boost neighborhood services. “Ever since we got past the (Mayor Bob) Filner resignation, there has been calm in city government.”

In District 1, Ellis campaign manager Tony Manolatos said some hope for his candidate might be the volatility and unpredictability of elections this year, partly due to the presidential candidacy of Donald Trump.

Trump locking up the Republican nomination a few weeks before the June primary hurt local Republican candidates.

“A lot of Republicans stayed home in June, but we don’t know if they will do it again,” Manolatos said. “We’re working and talking and moving forward.”

Bry campaign manager Hilary Nemchik said there won’t be any veering from a strategy that got Bry more than 48 percent of the vote, compared to less than 34 percent for Ellis.

“We’re not going to let up and we’re going to focus on working as hard as ever,” said Nemchik, noting that Bry has outraised Ellis $114,000 to $550 since the primary.