Poll: DeMaio, Peters tied at the end

Democratic Rep. Scott Peters and Republican challenger Carl DeMaio are in a statistical tie as voters decide Tuesday which man emerges victorious in one the most contentious and expensive congressional races in the nation, according to a new U-T San Diego/10News poll.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA Monday through Thursday, shows DeMaio with 45 percent support to 44 percent for Peters.

“It’s fascinating,” said Jay Leve, founder and editor of SurveyUSA, “You have two known quantities here in the candidates, and despite all the unyielding messaging, mailers and commercials that have gone out, the fundamental fact of the race coming down to the wire is that it remains even.”

The poll, which surveyed 551 likely voters and people who already have voted, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.

A similar poll conducted Oct. 17-20 also had the election a virtual dead heat at 46 percent for DeMaio and 45 percent for Peters. SurveyUSA has conducted four polls since Labor Day, with DeMaio never polling below 46 percent until this poll and Peters never above 47 percent.

The latest gauge of district voters showed 11 percent of the likely voters were undecided, up 1 point from the last poll. The number of undecideds was 6 percent in a poll released Oct. 7.

The number of voters who said they hadn’t made up their minds — nearly double since June — is unusual for this late in the campaign and indicates Peters and DeMaio have each been able to raise doubts about the other, Leve said.

“When you see the number of undecideds go up in the latter stages, it’s an indication that the attack ads and other things swirling around the campaign are causing some people to rethink their choice,” he said.

Among those in the coastal district stretching from Coronado to Del Mar and east to Poway who say they’ve cast their ballot by mail, DeMaio had a 12-point lead at 53 percent to Peters’ 41 percent.

Men are equally split in their support at 45 percent for each, according to the poll, while DeMaio had a two-point advantage among women.

While Peters and DeMaio both remain positioned to win, Leve said SurveyUSA’s polling nationwide has been trending for Republicans.

“There is a potential for a GOP wave,” he said. “If that plays out, it would end poorly for a first-term incumbent Democrat like Mr. Peters who could get washed out to sea.”

At the same time, Peters has reason to be buoyed because DeMaio hasn’t put any distance between himself and his rival, Leve said.

“He has to feel great about the fact that DeMaio has not been able to pull ahead and has no tail wind behind him. The Latino vote may come in more Democratic than what we are showing, and he is doing well among younger voters. If there are more younger voters out there that he can get to the polls, Peters has enough to pull off a win in a tough environment.”

Latinos favored Peters 46 percent to DeMaio’s 32 percent, a reversal from the last poll which had DeMaio up among that group by double digits.

Voters age 18 to 34 support Peters by 13 points over DeMaio. Voters age 50 to 64 were virtually split. Those age 65 and above back DeMaio 54 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll.

Integrity remains the most important issue to voters. Peters leads DeMaio among those citing that as the top issue, 48 percent to 40 percent.

Fiscal responsibility is the second most important issue with DeMaio trouncing Peters at 74 percent to 21 percent.

Ability to reach across party lines was third most important to voters. Those who viewed that as the top concern favored Peters led 63 percent to 26 percent.

The candidates were essentially tied among poll respondents with four years of college. Those with some college experience but no degree favored DeMaio by 3 percent over Peters, and DeMaio led among those with only a high school diploma by 9 points.

When asked which man they considered more trustworthy, respondents cited DeMaio over Peters 44 percent to 39 percent.

Peters was given the edge on which candidate better reflects voters’ position on same-sex marriage and abortion. DeMaio led on which better represented respondents views on transportation and the two were essentially tied on veterans issues.

More than $10 million has been spent by the candidates and groups backing them for the seat that Peters wrested from the GOP in 2012, defeating Rep. Brian Bilbray.