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Padres Insider: Who will take the fifth?

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As Darren Balsley scanned the landscape heading into the offseason, he’d come to terms with the idea that the band might not get back together.

The Padres needed runs. Balsley’s staff, especially at the top, had the bullets to get something done.

Yet somehow, rookie General Manager A.J. Preller’s master plan – Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks – has left the front of the rotation intact. Somehow, Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy remain.

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At least for now.

“It goes without saying that I’m extremely pleased that A.J. pulled this off,” said Balsley, who’s preparing to enter his 13th season as the Padres pitching coach. “ … To do that without giving up one of our top three starters, it’s pretty cool to say the least. I thought we’d lose one of them for sure.”

That’s not to say that what the Padres have lost isn’t significant.

In Jesse Hahn, who went to Oakland in the Norris deal, the Padres have relinquished a talented 24-year-old right-hander whom they stood to control through 2020 after watching him post a 3.07 ERA through his first 14 appearances in the majors.

Long-term, the task to replace Hahn is daunting. In the short-term, however, options abound for the spot behind the big three and Odrisamer Despaigne:

  • Robbie Erlin: While the 24-year-old left-hander is the best bet to inject some balance into an all-right rotation, a southpaw isn’t a must-add. “I don’t think that way,” Balsley said. “We’ve had plenty of staffs without a left-hander. It’d be nice, but I’d rather just take the best five guys.” The improved change-up that Erlin flashed at times last year is one reason why he remains in that mix despite an up-and-down 2014, one marred by an injured elbow.
  • Josh Johnson: Although his deal is not official (who wants to DFA someone around the holidays?), Johnson returns to the Padres on an incentive-laden contract after missing all of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery. The 30-year-old, two-time All-Star boasts the most upside of any of the Padres’ options, but a second elbow reconstruction limits expectations. A May return to action is the safest projection.
  • Casey Kelly: One of three rotation hopefuls coming off Tommy John surgery, the 25-year-old Kelly has passed the eye test on what video Balsley has seen this offseason. Yet Kelly contended with complications late last season after a seemingly smooth rehab and has not pitched in the majors since 2012, when he posted a 6.21 ERA over his first six MLB starts.
  • Cory Luebke: Like Johnson, Luebke’s status as a two-time Tommy John patient make his returning relatively uncharted waters. When the Padres inked Luebke to a four-year, $12 million deal before the 2012 season, they thought they had a blossoming No. 1 on the cheap. Now, it would be difficult to expect Luebke to return before midseason in anything more than a bullpen role.
  • Brandon Morrow: The 30-year-old Morrow might be the leader of the pack heading into spring training. Signed to an incentive-laded deal like Johnson, Morrow is at least healthy to open spring training after contending with a litany of injuries the last two seasons. The sort of stuff that helped Morrow strike out 17 batters in a game and once lead the AL with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings sets him up as a home-run signing if all goes well.
  • Alex Torres: Often times, moving a young reliever into the rotation is a course of action that can help him iron out flaws. As far as the 27-year-old Torres goes, he lacked a consistent release point at times in 2014, has an extensive history of starting in the minors and has communicated a desire to pitch in a rotation again. While the Padres didn’t have a need last year, it’s not inconceivable that Torres is stretched out at the start of spring to get as many innings as possible.
  • Matt Wisler: Long-term, this 22-year-old right-hander will absolutely settle into the Padres’ rotation after balking at including him in trade discussions this offseason. In spite of a rough year with Triple-A El Paso, Wisler has topped teams’ wish lists as Preller remakes his offseason. He is the Padres’ top pitching prospect, and the system’s top overall prospect, but a wealth of options likely means that Wisler will return to the Pacific Coast League after posting a 5.01 ERA in 22 starts there last year.
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