Breaking down Bolts playoff scenarios

Philip Rivers is familiar with all the ifs.

“I know everything about them,” he said of the scenarios in which the Chargers get into the postseason. “We’ll be watching closely.”

He ticked off the crucial games – Kansas City at Pittsburgh and Baltimore at Houston today, Denver at Cincinnati on Monday night.

But he knew for those games to be important, the Chargers had to win Saturday night, which they did in spectacular fashion. Their 38-35 overtime victory over the San Francisco 49ers assured the Chargers will kick off in a meaningful game in the season finale Dec. 28 at Kansas City.

If they win in Kansas City, the Chargers are in the playoffs unless Baltimore and Pittsburgh win their remaining two games or Baltimore wins twice and Pittsburgh wins once and Cincinnati beats Denver on Monday.

Huh?

Put another way, the Chargers will be in much better shape if the Houston Texans beat the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Pittsburgh Steelers today. They also would do well to have Denver win Monday night. They're not out of the playoffs if those results don't happen, it would just require more things going their way on the regular season's final Sunday.

Yeah, that's the sort of math the Chargers put themselves in a position to have to keep track of, along with relying on the kindness of other people.

But it’s better than not having a shot.

View the photo gallery: Chargers at 49ers 12/20/2014

The web site makenflplayoffs.com put the Chargers chances of making the playoffs with a 10-6 record at 87.5 percent. Their likelihood had they lost Saturday would have been just 11.2 percent.

The site derives its probability from running 100 million simulated games. The Chargers don’t have to count on quite that many results going their way in real life, but they definitely need assistance.

Because Pittsburgh and Baltimore have nine victories already, both of them winning out means they would finish a game ahead of the Chargers.

The Chargers’ victory over the Ravens last month gives the Chargers a tiebreaker over Baltimore at 10-6. To that end, Chargers fans should be rooting Sunday for the Texans. Baltimore finishes the season Dec. 28 at home against the Cleveland Browns.

It is also a fact that Chargers faithful should temporarily set aside their disdain for the Denver Broncos, as a Denver victory in Cincinnati Monday would end up benefiting the Chargers if the Ravens lose once or if the Ravens win out and Pittsburgh loses once.

The Chargers cannot make the playoffs if they lose at Kansas City.

“First of all, we know what it is to go to Kansas City and win,” Rivers said. “That’s hard. But if after that one we found a way to win, and it’s not enough, then it’s not enough. We have to make sure we hold up our end of it and get to 10-6.”

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