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UCLA: SD economy firing on all cylinders

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San Diego County’s economy will see diverse growth this year, but it won’t be until 2016 that the labor market tightens up.

That’s according to an economic forecast released Wednesday by the Anderson School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles, which included a wide range of predictions for San Diego County. While the school releases national and statewide economic forecasts each year, this is the school’s first San Diego County forecast in some time. Overall, the local forecast says job growth will pick up, home prices will increase, and incomes will rise.

“All cylinders of the San Diego County economy appear to be firing now, and that includes technology, tourism, construction and real estate,” the forecast says.

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Still, San Diego County’s unemployment rate is elevated, at 7 percent. This year’s job growth will only tick up slightly, pushing the jobless rate down to 6.6 percent by the end of 2014. The forecast says county employers added 33,000 jobs in 2013, and will add another 36,000 in 2014, for 2.7 percent growth. The job gains will be led by technology and business services, but unemployment won’t touch 5 percent until 2016.

“We’ve got a recovery in jobs that doesn’t account for the jobs that are needed for just the population growth over that period of time,” said Jerry Nickelsburg, a senior economist at UCLA. The forecast says San Diego County’s population should grow by 3,874 people in 2014, to 3,209,846 residents — and about 47 percent will be employed.

In residential real estate, the forecast says home values will appreciate once again in 2014, but not as quickly as they did over the last two years. Throughout the year, the median home value will average $455,000, which would be a 10.5 percent increase over 2013. For comparison, values rose 18.5 percent from 2012 to 2013.

When it comes to income, San Diegans appear to be in store for a raise. Per-capita income will rise to $53,626 in 2014, up from an average $51,870 last year. That’s a 3.3 percent increase, nearly double the expected inflation rate of 1.7 percent.

Statewide, UCLA says the best thing California has going for it is the outlook for the global economy, with growth returning to Europe and Japan, and economies picking up speed in China and India. Nickelsburg said he expects California’s job growth to be about 2.2 percent.