Q&A: What gov’t shutdown would do

Congress is arguing about how to pay for the government’s 2014 fiscal year, which will start Tuesday. It’s constitutionally required to fund the government by Sept. 30 each year, but has frequently turned to last-minute showdowns before paying the bills.

On Sept. 20, the House approved a stop-gap measure that would fund the government but also strip funding for the Affordable Care Act. Large parts of this health-care law, widely called Obamacare, are set to take effect with the new fiscal year.

On Friday, the Senate passed its own bill that would maintain funding for Obamacare and pay for government operations. That legislation was sent to the House, setting up another last-minute drama over the weekend and on Monday.

Here are answers to some frequently asked questions about the potential effects of a government shutdown:

Q: How long would a shutdown last?

A: No one knows. Past shutdowns have lasted from one day to three weeks. Republicans in Congress may be wary of letting the shutdown happen at all, because the GOP took most of the blame for the last shutdown.

Q: When was the last federal shutdown? How did it play out?

A: The most recent shutdown was from mid-December 1995 to early January 1996 under President Clinton. It was triggered after Republicans in Congress demanded a seven-year budget plan that used different economic forecasts than those used by Clinton. It lasted 21 days. Republicans ended up passing legislation to keep the government open.

Q: How many federal workers are affected nationwide, locally?

A: Estimates say nearly half of the nation’s 2.1 million non-postal service federal workers could be furloughed during a shutdown. So, a large chunk of the 45,800 federal civilian workers in San Diego County could be placed on unpaid leave. The more than 90,000 uniformed military personnel at bases across the county would continue to serve and accrue pay, but their paychecks could be delayed.

Q: Which workers stay on the job?

A: All “essential” employees would be required to work, including those that provide for national security, conduct foreign relations essential to national security or protect the safety of life and property.

Q: Do Congress and the president still get paid during a shutdown?

A: Yes. They fall under the category of "essential" personnel.

Is another federal standoff looming?

Q: Yes. The nation is about to hit the federal debt ceiling in October leading to worries about another down-to-the-wire standoff. Republicans have said they would agree to increase the debt limit to avert a default only if Democrats accepted a list of Republican priorities, including a one-year delay of the health care law, a tax overhaul and a broad rollback of environmental regulations. Experts say this would be a damaging and first-ever default for the United States, and could come as early as October 17. That’s when The Treasury says it would have only $30 billion cash on hand to pay daily bills that can be as high as $60 billion, unless Congress were to raise the debt ceiling.

How would a shutdown affect me?

Q: Will the mail still be delivered? Will post offices stay open?

A: Yes and yes. The U.S. Postal Service is a self-funded agency meaning it won’t be affected by a possible shutdown, according to a spokeswoman for the agency. Normal mail delivery and post office hours will continue.

Q: What happens to my social security check and other federal benefits?

A: They will still arrive in the mail. By law, certain agencies must continue to operate with unsalaried employees, including those that manage Social Security payments and Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements.

Q: Will this cause delays at airport security lines?

A: Agents from the Transportation Security Administration would continue to screen travelers and baggage at airports. The agency declined to say whether some agents would be furloughed if there’s a protracted shutdown.

Q: Will local governments keep operating, and at normal levels?

A: Yes. City and county governments would function largely the same in the near-term as most of their federal funding is first channeled through states. It’s possible that some cities waiting for a federal grant would see a delay.

Military/Border

Q: How does this affect the military? Will troops still be paid?

A: All military personnel will continue to serve and accrue pay, but their paychecks would be delayed. Checks could continue to arrive on time if Congress passes an appropriations bill for this specific purpose before the shutdown, as was introduced early this year.

Q: Will medical services and benefits continue for veterans?

A: Medical services offered by the Department of Veterans Affairs would continue unaffected. But the shutdown could slow the VA’s efforts to reduce the huge backlog of veterans’ disability claims.

Q: Will the nation's border still be patrolled? Will customs inspections booths operate?

A: Yes. Employees with U.S. Customs and Border Protection are considered “essential” because they help protect life and property.

Transportation

Q: Will airports, freeways and transit lines stay open?

A: Air travel is not expected to be delayed as federal air traffic controllers would continue to work. Freeways and transit lines, which are managed by state and regional agencies, would also stay open.

Tourism/Camping

Q: Can I still go to Cabrillo National Monument and other national visitor sites?

A: No. They will close. At Cabrillo monument, a law enforcement ranger would remain on duty to turn would-be visitors around. National parks from Yosemite to the Great Smokey Mountains would shutter. The National Park Service has issued a preliminary warning to day-use visitors that they will be asked to leave “immediately.” Campers, according to the park service, will be asked to pack up within 48 hours.

Education

Q: How will K-12 schools be affected? What about colleges?

A: Most public schools would not feel immediate affects, because they have already received some of their federal funding for the school year and because they are funded mainly through state and local governments.

College student aid could be delayed. And federal oversight of colleges would stop temporarily. But a shutdown, as long as it’s short, isn’t expected to have long-term consequences for higher education.

Statewide impact

Q: What impact would a shutdown have on the state budget?

A: California in 2013-14 expects to receive $87.56 billion in federal revenues – money that is used for everything from health care to education to highway construction. That’s a large slice of the overall $233 billion the state spends annually from all sources.

State budget analysts on Monday are expected to release a report on potential direct impacts and whether there are sufficient reserves to fill any gaps if a shutdown persists for some time.

“That’s what we’re looking at right now,” said H.D. Palmer, a spokesman for the Department of Finance.

Palmer said it’s too early to panic, given that almost every government shutdown has “been relatively short term in nature” although “we certainly hope it does not happen.”

The major programs that count on federal funding are: health and welfare, $56.8 billion; labor and workforce development: $10.4 billion; K-12 schools, $7.6 billion; transportation, $5.7 billion; and colleges, $4.8 billion.

Q: What about the debt limit?

A: That debate gives state budget writers the shudders – more so than a shutdown. If the showdown over the spending limit creates turmoil in the markets, state budget revenues could plummet.

H.D. Palmer, a spokesman for the Department of Finance, pointed out that 1 percent of the taxpayers account for 41 percent of the state’s total $97 billion in general fund revenues.

“The income from those taxpayers is not wage income. It’s from stock options and capital gains,” Palmer said.

Palmer said one only needs to look back to the dot.com bust or the Great Recession to understand what disruptions in the financial markets can mean for state spending on schools, roads, public safety and social services.

The independent Legislative Analyst said the potential shutdown and debt ceiling impasse are a “wild card” that could derail the slowly rebounding economy.

“Such a disruption could hurt the state’s revenue situation,” the analyst warned.

Q: What about the California National Guard?

A: Although cuts to “essential” services, including national defense, is supposed to be off-limits, a shutdown has implications for the California National Guard and, by extension, state wildfire fights.

And what’s scary is the fact that it may mean fewer – or even no – California National Guard airplanes in the skies to help fight forest fires. San Diego County’s 2003 Cedar Fire – the largest wildfire in state history – and the local Witch Fire in 2007 both raged in October.

Moreover, National Guard planes may have been grounded if the catastrophic Rim Fire that threatened Yosemite in mid-August had broken out during a shutdown.

“We would not be able to have our full fleet in the air,” said Captain Will Martin, a spokesman for the National Guard.

That’s because aircraft maintenance workers are part of the 2,000 National Guard “federal technicians” who are not considered essential and may be furloughed, according to Martin.

“This isn’t just going to hurt us in terms of combat readiness. Here at home or emergency responses could be hampered,” he said. “We respond, on average, to one emergency every three days.”

All told, 2,000 of the 22,000-strong National Guard fall into this category. They are attached to the National Guard but work Monday-Friday for the guard in various capacities, from aircraft maintenance to book-keeping.

“These are fulltime staff that keep the machine that is the California National Guard running,” Martin said.

The other 20,000 traditional members of the guard with other civilian jobs are classified as essential, he said.

chris.nichols@utsandiego.com | (760) 529-4929 | Twitter@christhejourno

mike.gardner@utsandiego.com | (916) 445-2934