Mapping a winning 2014 Padres season

Oct. 5, 2013 4:54 PM PT

The Padres are saying they’ll have $80 million to spend on players in 2014.

There is reason for Padres fans to be skeptical – given their payrolls of the last eight years have ranked among the lowest in baseball.

But let’s take the Padres at their word. Say they will spend $80 million on players in 2013. What can it buy them? And will it be enough to make them a contender in a National League West now controlled by the free-spending Los Angeles Dodgers?

Although there are some interesting free agents out there this winter – no, the Padres will not be in the bidding for Robinson Cano -- the Padres might go in a completely different direction.

If other teams believe the Padres minor league pitching is as deep as the Padres think it is, the Padres might be in position to package a pitching prospect with an incumbent player at a position for an upgrade at that position.

They might be able to say, trade either Will Venable or a Chris Denorfia and a pitching prospect for an upgrade at a corner outfield slot.

Looking back at 2013 Padres

Other teams in the past have been interested in Denorfia and Venable. And both are already signed for 2014 at reasonable amounts – Denorfia at $2.25 and Venable at $4.25. That could make them attractive to other teams.

And the Padres desperately need to add a bat in the middle of the lineup.

The guess here is that the Padres will make an effort to re-sign third baseman Chase Headley to a multi-year contract before he become eligible for free agency at the end of the 2014 season. Headley would like to have a five-year deal. He also wants to stay with the Padres.

The problem for both sides will be to calculate a fair market price considering the 29-year-old’s past two seasons.

Headley’s breakout campaign of 2012 (.286, 31 homers and a National League-leading 115 RBIs) was followed by a .250 season that resulted in only 13 homers (incidentally, still the second-highest total of his career) and 50 RBIs. Headley’s market – and trade value – was further impacted by the news that he had arthroscopic surgery two days after the end of the season to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee.

Injuries could possibly impact much of what the Padres attempt to do this off-season.

Given the nature of their injuries, it would be virtually impossible for the Padres to move the likes of outfielders Carlos Quentin and Cameron Maybin; outfielder-first baseman Kyle Blanks; catcher Yasmani Grandal; infielder Logan Forsythe and starting pitchers Cory Luebke, Joe Wieland and Casey Kelly even if they wished.

Not only is Quentin coming off a third round of knee surgery in 18 months, he has a full no-trade contract. Best scenario there is for Quentin to be healthy after two straight, half-seasons.

Grandal has rehabbing following surgery to rebuild the ACL in his right knee. Although the magic hands of Dr. James Andrews returned Adrian Peterson and Robert Griffin III to the NFL, Grandal is doubtful for the start of the 2014 campaign.

The Padres are higher about the future of Maybin (wrist surgery) than Blanks or Forsythe, who both had recurring injury problems in 2013 creating concerns about their futures.

As for “Tommy John” alums Luebke and Wieland, both suffered “concerning” setbacks that canceled their targeted returns in 2013. Kelly, meantime, is progressing on schedule toward an early 2014 return.

So, figure the Padres will have to play Quentin in left next year or eat the contract. Grandal will catch if healthy. If not, Nick Hundley returns for the final year of a three-year contract that will pay him $4 million.

As for the rest of the outfield, even if the Padres can package Venable or Denorfia, they will need to retain one as a fourth outfielder and insurance in center just in case surgery didn’t answered Maybin’s wrist problems.

Outfield depth will be provided by Alexi Amarista and Blanks or Forsythe if either remains healthy. A wildcard in the outfield might be Tommy Medica, who looked good in a late-season cameo at first filling in for the injured Yonder Alonso.

And there’s another question. Might the Padres look to package Alonso in a deal for a first baseman with more power. Alonso has proven he can hit for average and deliver runs with singles and doubles. But he lacks the classic first baseman’s power.

Which brings us to the pitching.

By the end of the season, Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross were developing into top of the rotation starters with Eric Stults and Ian Kennedy giving the Padres dependable second-tier starters.

That would seem to make such prospects as Robbie Erlin, Burch Smith and Donn Roach (among others) possible trade pawns.

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